Trying to predict who will win the Oscars: my filmaker friend Pat, who works in L.A., wrote this long review of all of the movies that ever happened in 2007, and his thoughts on what will win and what should win.  He’s sends this out every year and boy it’s thorough.  I just had to share this here.  He obviously spent a lot of time on this!  READ ON BELOW TO SEE HIS PREDICTIONS AND THEN TONIGHT- SEE IF HE GUESSED RIGHT!!!

HAPPY VIEWING!

{The following e-mail is in Rich Text and has been approved by the Pipe Fitters Local 378.}

Welcome to The PATS, Unknown Penguin’s e-mail of indeterminate length.

As most of you know, this is where I take time out of your schedule to tell you what I think of the films I saw last year, give you my Oscar picks, and give my own awards to the movies I especially loved. Because, honestly, there aren’t enough awards in the entertainment industry.

Between this time last year and now I saw 227 new movies (not including tons of short films). Of that number 70 were released in 2007. I must say this was an exceptional year for films. I cannot recall the last time I was excited to see something almost every weekend. Not all of that excitement was rewarded, but here you go with my top ten and a short explanation of each to follow.

     10 Once
       9 The Bourne Ultimatum
       8 Zodiac
       7 The Savages
       6 3:10 to Yuma
       5 Juno
       4 The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
       3 No Country for Old Men
       2 There Will Be Blood
       1 Hot Fuzz

Hot Fuzz (Edgar Wright) Jealous colleagues conspire to get a top London cop (Simon Pegg) transferred to a small town and paired with a witless new partner (Nick Frost). On the beat, the pair stumble upon a series of suspicious accidents and events.  From the people who brought you Shaun of the Dead and the BBC series Spaced comes this wonderful take-off of action films. Not a parody in the Scary Movie sense, the film is a comedy that follows the structure of an action film. What makes this the best movie I saw all year is that the filmmakers never sacrifice plot for laughs. Yes, the reveal is ridiculous but how many action movies have a had more believable reveals? The actors fully commit to the premise, the script is amazing, and the direction is spot on. Hot Fuzz proves that you can make a comedy in the traditional sense (whatever that means) and not sacrifice story and character development. Comedic brilliance. A must for fans of Uncle John movies. (As is Shaun of the Dead, by the way.)

There Will Be Blood (Paul Thomas Anderson) The story of an oil prospector (Daniel Day-Lewis) and his battles with a preacher (Paul Dano), his son, and himself. Loosely based on the novel Oil! by Upton Sinclair.  Not everyone likes P T Anderson. His previous films: Hard Eight, Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Punch-Drunk Love have met with either glowing praise or harsh words. I love his work. All of it. I think Magnolia is one of the ten best films I have seen. What I like about him is that each film is its own entity. Anderson strives to make each film different from the last. And There Will Be Blood is unlike any movie I have ever seen before.  Film buffs will notice the obvious Kubrick influence (especially 2001: A Space Odyssey). And, like Kubrick, Anderson weaves a gorgeous tapestry of cinematography, score, and production design to bring us to a unique time and place. And while it may never have actually existed, it feels real nonetheless. Day-Lewis is stunning as the amoral Daniel Plainview but he never overshadows his cast-mates. He dominates the picture because his character dominates the picture. This is a film that will be talked about for years to come.

No Country for Old Men (Joel Coen & Ethan Coen) After a hunter (Josh Brolin) stumbles across a drug deal gone wrong and takes the cash he is pursued by the area lawman (Tommy Lee Jones) and a ruthless hitman (Javier Bardem). Based on the novel by Cormack McCarthy.  My Aunt Susan once spoke to me of enjoying a moment of silence after you see a truly great piece of cinema or theatre. What makes this film truly stunning is not what is said but the silence. Amidst such films as Fargo, The Big Lebowski, and Raising Arizona, it can be forgotten the Coen Brothers started with a dark film noir/horror film called Blood Simple., or how scary and dark Fargo actually is. The Coens are truly amazing filmmakers. Even their least good film, The Lady Killers, is a fun (if not wholly satisfying) dark comedy.  But when No Country for Old Men was over, the audience I saw it with seemed a bit upset. I can’t even begin to try and explain why to you without ruining everything. But I will say this: No Country for Old Men is one of those “difficult” films. Snobs will delight in the artiness and the proletariat grumblings even though they didn’t get it. Proles will hate the movie due to what they interpret as boring and artsy nonsense. But both groups forget that the Coens are not pretentious and never have been. They are storytellers (and masters at that). They are great filmmakers. And they have made a great film, perhaps their greatest. So go, please go and judge for yourself. Discuss it at length with those who have also seen it. There is greatness here and not just artsy twaddle. This is a great film. (Plus Javier Bardem makes a wicked cool bad guy.)

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Andrew Dominik) Robert Ford (Casey Affleck), who’s idolized Jesse James (Brad Pitt) since childhood, tries hard to join the reforming gang of the Missouri outlaw, but gradually becomes resentful of the bandit leader.  Now that it’s on DVD, you shouldn’t have trouble finding it, and don’t let the two-plus hour running length might intimidate, everyone should see this film. Dominik stages this film as the end of an era, we know what’s coming but that’s not important. What is important is who these people were. Was Ford a coward? Was Jesse a hero? The film lets you decided based solely on the facts in the case. Truly a great film.

Juno (Jason Reitman) After learning she’s pregnant, an offbeat teenager (Ellen Page) decides to give her child to a young married couple (Jennifer Garner & Jason Bateman).  This year’s “Little Indie That Could” is a real delight. Diablo Cody’s screenplay and Jason Reitman’s direction created this beautiful child with more than a little help from the cast. Someone once said that great directing is really just great casting, and Juno is proof positive. The whole ensemble gels in a very natural way, completely sucking you in to their world and their story. Characters surprise each other and themselves, everyone learns something about themselves and the world, and we are right there with them the whole time. A wonderful film.

3:10 to Yuma (James Mangold) A small-time rancher (Christian Bale) agrees to hold a captured outlaw (Russell Crowe) who’s awaiting a train to go to court in Yuma. A battle of wills ensues as the outlaw tries to psych out the rancher.  The first truly great film I saw this year. A slow build of tension combined with some amazing acting make this an amazing motion picture. There were so many great films this year, this one just got over-looked at the Oscars. But it was a great film and should last as a great, modern western.

The Savages (Tamara Jenkins) A sister (Laura Linney) and brother (Philip Seymour Hoffman) face the realities of familial responsibility as they begin to care for their ailing father (Philip Bosco). I balked at the final shot of this movie. I mean honestly balked. But then, it hit me: The Savages is one of those rare films in which every shot has meaning. Every scene, every character, every line is connected to each other. The film is heartbreaking, challenging, and hilarious. Two actors at the top of their game deliver performances for the ages. A great film.

The Bourne Ultimatum (Paul Greengrass) Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) dodges new, superior assassins as he searches for his unknown past while a government agent tries to track him down. Even though Doug Liman started it all with The Bourne Identity, this is is Paul Greengrass’s series. The shaky-camera is never out of control in Greengrass’s hands. This series should be required viewing for everyone who sets out to make a sequel. Each film builds on the last while remaining true to the characters. It never over-reaches and is totally true to the universe it creates. Amazing stuff.

Zodiac (David Fincher) Based on the Robert Graysmith (Jake Gyllenhaal) books about the real life notorious Zodiac, a serial killer who terrorized San Francisco with a string of seemingly random murders during the 1960s and 1970s. I’m surprised this film got passed over for Oscar recognition. This is possibly David Fincher’s greatest film, which is saying something for the man who brought us Seven and Fight Club. Fincher achieves Hitchockian feats with this story of a killer and how his crimes destroyed not only his victims but the people who investigated him as well. This film is also an example of how CGI can aid in telling a story and not just for flash. Don’t let the +2 hour length scare you off, it’s worth every second.

Once (John Carney) A modern-day musical about a busker (Glen Hansard) and an immigrant (Markéta Irglová) and their eventful week in Dublin, as they write, rehearse and record songs that tell their love story.  This beautiful little Irish film is the epitome of minimalism. The camera is hand-held and digital (but not in a bad way). There are three or four characters. There are no bad guys. There is only what happens. And music. Beautiful music. This one has already come and gone from most art houses but if you can find it on DVD, it’s worth a go. One of the best films I’ve seen so far this year.

Other noteworthy films I saw this year included:
  American Gangster, Ridley Scott
  Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, Sidney Lumet
  Charlie Wilson’s War, Mike Nichols
  I’m Not There., Todd Haynes
  In the Valley of Elah, Paul Haggis
  Knocked Up, Judd Apatow
  Michael Clayton, Tony Gilroy
  Paris, je t’aime, Gus Van Sant, Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, Alfonso Cuarón, Richard LaGravenese, Wes Craven, Tom Tykwer, Gérard Depardieu, Alexander Payne, et al.
  Ratatouille, Brad Bird
  Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Tim Burton
  The Ten, David Wain
  La Vie en Rose, Olivier Dahan

For the first time ever (discounting shorts and documentaries) I saw every film nominated for an Oscar. This, of course, helps little in predictions but Evan Almighty is it fun (except for Across the Universe, August Rush, The Kite Runner, and Norbit. Oh, God, Norbit.). And so, here are my predictions for the winners at this years Oscars (as well as some “should-wins” and commentary).

Best Motion Picture of the Year
     Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: There Will Be Blood

Best Achievement in Directing
     Will Win: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
     Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
     Will Win: Ellen Page, Juno
Should Win: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
I’m going out on a but of a limb here, but I think Page just might sneak through.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
     Will Win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
     Will Win: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Should Win: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
This is far and away the hardest category to predict. Of the five nominees, four have won at a previous awards show: Blanchett at Critic’s Choice, Dee at SAG, Swinton at the BAFTAs, and Ryan at the Golden Globes. I’m going with Swinton since Michael Clayton has the most nominations of the gathering and she deserves it (this is gonna come back and bite me).

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
     Will Win: Juno, Diablo Cody
Should Win: Juno, Diablo Cody

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
     Will Win: No Country for Old Men, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Should Win: There Will Be Blood, Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Achievement in Cinematography
     Will Win: There Will Be Blood, Robert Elswit
Should Win: There Will Be Blood, Robert Elswit
This is one instance where seeing the film hurts one’s ability to predict the winner but I think that Roger Deakins will split between No Country for Old Men and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.

Best Achievement in Editing
     Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Should Win: There Will Be Blood

Best Achievement in Art Direction
     Will Win: There Will Be Blood
Should Win: There Will Be Blood

Best Achievement in Costume Design
     Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
     Will Win: Atonement (And, by the way, I hate this score.)
Should Win: Michael Clayton

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
     Will Win: Once, “Falling Slowly”
Should Win: Once, “Falling Slowly”

Best Achievement in Makeup
     Will Win: La Vie en Rose
Should Win: La Vie en Rose

Best Achievement in Sound
     Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
     Will Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: There Will Be Blood

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
     Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: Transformers

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
     Will Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Persepolis

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
     Will Win: Beaufort (Israel)

Best Documentary, Features
     Will Win: Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
     Will Win: Sari’s Mother

Best Short Film, Animated
     Will Win: Madame Tutli-Putli (Though I’m pulling for I Met the Walrus.)

Best Short Film, Live Action
     Will Win: At Night

And now for the moment you’ve all been waiting for: THE PATS! Since there are many first-timers on this BCC, I feel I should explain. I’ve been giving THE PATS since 2000 when Memento got far too few Oscar nominations. I am of the opinion that the director of a film should be considered its author and therefore a Best Director category is redundant. A complete list of the eligible films is at the bottom of this e-mail. Any film in which I had creative input is disqualified. Enjoy!

Best Feature Length Fiction Picture: Hot Fuzz, Edgar Wright

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress: Kelly Macdonald, No Country for Old Men

Best Actor Under 18: Ed Sanders, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Best Ensemble Performance: Knocked Up

Best Original Screenplay: Hot Fuzz, Edgar Wright and Simon Pegg

Best Adapted Screenplay: There Will Be Blood, Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Cinematography: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Roger Deakins

Best Editing: There Will Be Blood, Dylan Tichenor and Tatiana S. Riegel

Best Production Design: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and There Will Be Blood [tie]

Best Costumes: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and There Will Be Blood [tie]

Best Visual Effects: Zodiac

Best Sound: Zodiac

Best Feature Length Animated Picture: Persepolis

Best Short Fiction Picture: A Joe Divided, Tony Gioconda

The Kelley Award for Best Performance in a Song or Dance Number: Enchanted, “That’s How You Know” - Amy Adams and Knocked Up, “Dice Throwing Move” - Seth Rogen & Katherine Heigl [tie]

Films Eligible for Consideration
Recommended feature films have a “+” next to them, the over/under on feature length is 60 minutes.

Fiction Features
Across the Universe
American Gangster +
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford +
Atonement
August Rush
Away from Her +
Because I Said So
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead +
Black Snake Moan
The Bourne Ultimatum +
Charlie Wilson’s War +
The Darjeeling Limited +
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Eastern Promises +
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Enchanted +
1408
The Golden Compass
Gone Baby Gone +
Grindhouse +
Hairspray
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Hot Fuzz +
I am Legend
I’m Not There. +
In the Valley of Elah +
Into the Wild
Juno +
The Kingdom
The Kite Runner
Knocked Up +
Lars and the Real Girl +
Live Free or Die Hard
The Lookout
Michael Clayton +
A Mighty Heart
No Country for Old Men +
Norbit
Ocean’s Thirteen
Once +
Paris, je t’aime +
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Rescue Dawn +
Reno 911!: Miami +
Romance & Cigarettes +
The Savages +
Shoot ‘Em Up
Spider-Man 3
Stardust
Superbad +
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street +
Sydney White
The Ten +
There Will Be Blood +
300 +
3:10 to Yuma +
Transformers
La Vie en Rose +
Waitress +
Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story +
Zodiac +

Non-Fiction Features
Brando.

Animated Features
Meet the Robinsons
Persepolis +
Ratatouille +
The Simpsons Movie +
Surf’s Up +

Fiction Shorts
The Animal Within
A.P.E.
The Bronze Door
A Bus Story
C.O.P. 2000
Cupid Incorporated
DeLeón Crossing
E.T.R.I.P.
Figure of Fun
Food Fight
Group Therapy
Helpful Cowboys
Hotel Chevalier
If the Shoe Fits
Inquisito Libellus
A Joe Divided
Kumbio Takedown
The Last Man on Earth
Oh, Jesus!
Parting Shots
Posi+ive
The Resposed
Rooster.com
Seasonal Disorder
Semi Sweet
Table Manners
What a Babe
Wing Woman

Non-Fiction Shorts
[None.]

Animated Shorts
The Chubbchubbs Save Xmas

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